Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.328221 5.068213 5.886102 6.855677 7.972210 9.216135 10.705476
2025-09-28 3.101881 4.072719 5.261664 6.818121 8.794596 11.212691 14.386513
2025-10-05 2.584033 3.728212 5.251876 7.412670 10.378518 14.283815 19.788625
2025-10-12 2.120607 3.320615 5.038296 7.646317 11.468793 16.820542 24.822685
2025-10-19 1.787750 3.009352 4.872346 7.874004 12.529255 19.397414 30.193263
2025-10-26 1.495063 2.689672 4.620120 7.902418 13.258230 21.537808 35.141408
2025-11-02 1.220152 2.338364 4.247067 7.660515 13.500219 22.926316 39.056984
2025-11-09 0.983341 2.002745 3.836407 7.276886 13.431540 23.776375 42.163573
2025-11-16 0.829991 1.788359 3.597451 7.144180 13.751537 25.270723 46.454928
2025-11-23 0.712831 1.620237 3.412968 7.075456 14.161504 26.941162 51.194387
2025-11-30 0.656056 1.564133 3.432380 7.390801 15.308487 30.017890 58.709059
2025-12-07 0.578760 1.448532 3.312916 7.410848 15.885416 32.102010 64.605966
2025-12-14 0.509111 1.339244 3.194697 7.427741 16.481185 34.327839 71.086682
2025-12-21 0.447960 1.238061 3.078567 7.434009 17.060575 36.593380 77.901240
2025-12-28 0.438547 1.262859 3.249889 8.095962 19.099547 41.959357 91.352475
2026-01-04 0.403824 1.215410 3.244813 8.355958 20.298407 45.735645 101.956600
2026-01-11 0.372247 1.169761 3.236319 8.605525 21.501662 49.635914 113.179232
2026-01-18 0.333388 1.095374 3.143553 8.637195 22.208179 52.543064 122.574747
2026-01-25 0.286604 0.987261 2.944937 8.374678 22.188190 53.857715 128.655130
2026-02-01 0.240552 0.870262 2.701410 7.957904 21.738674 54.158523 132.517698
2026-02-08 0.210828 0.797911 2.568694 7.813702 21.944359 55.970960 139.942861
2026-02-15 0.187181 0.739996 2.467174 7.739013 22.316332 58.204901 148.536527
2026-02-22 0.178378 0.731517 2.511382 8.081750 23.820898 63.286877 164.253806